China’s PC market set for a return to growth of 3% in 2024

Canalys anticipates that China’s PC (excluding tablets) market will rebound to 3% growth in 2024 and 10% growth in 2025, primarily fueled by refresh demand from the commercial sector. The tablet market is expected to grow by 4% in both 2024 and 2025, benefiting from increasing penetration as digitalization deepens.

“2024 is expected to bring modest relief to a struggling PC market in China, but a challenging environment will remain,” said Canalys Analyst Emma Xu. “Ongoing economic structural adjustments are a key priority as the government seeks new avenues for economic growth, with a core focus on technology-driven innovation. AI emerged as a central theme during the latest ‘Two Sessions’ in China, with enthusiasm for AI spanning commercial entities and government initiatives aimed at establishing a domestic AI ecosystem across industries. Significant opportunities for the PC industry are set to arise from this commercial push, especially as it coincides with the upcoming device refresh and the emergence of AI-capable PCs.”

Canalys projects 3% growth in China’s PC market in 2024 and a further 10% expansion in 2025. Tablet growth is expected to reach 4% in both 2024 and 2025.

The PC (excluding tablets) market in Mainland China ended 2023 with a 9% year-on-year decline in Q4, with 11.3 million units shipped. Desktops experienced a 13% drop to 3.3 million units, while notebook shipments decreased by 7% year on year to 8.1 million units. This led to overall shipments of 41.2 million units in 2023, down 17% from 2022.

China’s tablet market saw a decline of 3% in Q4 2023 to reach 8.4 million units, with full-year 2023 shipments totaling 28.3 million in a year with increased competition as new entrants ramped up their focus on the category.