US PC market forecast to grow 2% in 2025 

Canalys research shows PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States grew 7% year-on-year to 17.9 million units in Q3 2024. Notebooks drove this growth, with shipments up 9% annually. Looking ahead, the US PC market recovery is expected to continue, but at a slower rate than previously anticipated, due to weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle and headwinds related to macroeconomic policies. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to rise 6% to just under 70 million units in 2024 followed by modest 2% growth in both 2025 and 2026. 

Commercial demand remained strong in the second half of 2024 with the segment seeing 12% shipment growth in Q3. The Windows 11 refresh still has a way to go and commercial strength in this market should continue through the end of the year and into early 2025.  

“While growth earlier in the year was bolstered by consumer purchases, the commercial market has become the leading segment for PCs in the US,” said Canalys Analyst Greg Davis. “Both large and small businesses have begun exhibiting stronger refreshes of their PC fleets with Windows 11 devices as we entered the second half of the year. In the consumer space, a relatively robust seasonal discounting period around Black Friday and Cyber Monday will help boost shipments in Q4.”  

While Microsoft and its partners will work to improve the overall awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-life throughout 2025, we expect a sizable portion of fleet refreshes will happen after the end of service date. This is due to the relatively modest pace of the transition so far, especially given that a large portion of the current installed base remains on Windows 10 just 10 months out from the October 2025 deadline 

PC market expectations for 2025 onwards have also been tempered due to anticipated policy changes by the incoming administration. 

“With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near-term as they have been over the last year or two,” continued Davis. “With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way.” A study by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) suggests that device prices could rise as much as 46% because of the proposed tariffs, which would add significant downside risk to the forecast. Signals from the supply chain suggest there will be some stockpiling of inventory in early 2025 to get ahead of the anticipated rise in prices, leading to rebalancing of the shipment seasonality next year.  

“A longer-term risk factor stems from the proposed public sector budget cuts, both for federal government and education procurement of PCs,” said Davis. “Although 2025 budgets will remain largely intact, we anticipate future spending on technology from these areas could be reduced.” 

For more information, please contact:

Greg Davis: greg_davis@canalys.com 

About PC Analysis

Canalys’ PC Analysis service provides quarterly updated shipment data to help with accurate market sizing, competitive analysis and identifying growth opportunities in the market. Canalys PC shipment data is granular, guided by a strict methodology, and is broken down by market, vendor and channel, as well as additional splits, such as GPU, CPU, storage and memory. In addition, Canalys also publishes quarterly forecasts to help better understand the future trajectory and changing landscape of the PC industry. 

About Canalys

Canalys is an independent analyst company that strives to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We deliver smart market insights to IT, channel and service provider professionals around the world. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology and our high level of customer service.

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