Mainland China’s PC market rebounded in Q4 2024, poised for 3% growth in 2025 

The latest Canalys, now part of Omdia, research revealed that Mainland China’s PC market returned to growth in Q4 2024, expanding 2% year on year, driven by an 8% surge in consumer demand. Notebooks led the rebound with a 6% increase to 8.6 million units, while desktops declined 9% to 2.9 million units. Tablet shipments remained relatively stable, slipping just 1% to 8.3 million units. Despite this late-year boost, full-year PC shipments for 2024 declined 4% to 39.7 million units, primarily due to commercial sector weakness. However, the tablet market surged 11% to 31.5 million units, with further gains expected in 2025. Canalys projects a 3% growth in Mainland China’s PC market and 1% growth in its tablet market to 41 million units and 31.9 million units, respectively, with both categories supported by government subsidies and new product launches from major vendors. 

“Strong government subsidies were the core driver of growth in the second half of 2024 and further incentives will sustain Mainland China’s PC market performance into the first half of 2025,” said Canalys Analyst Emma Xu. “Vendors have launched new PCs across various price segments, ranging from RMB4,000 to over RMB10,000 in a bid to encourage consumers to upgrade their devices. With subsidies of up to RMB2,000 per device extended into 2025, the market is poised for a significant refresh cycle following stagnant post-COVID demand and ahead of the end-of-support for Windows 10 in October this year. As the subsidy program continues, competitive product offerings, effective go-to-market strategies and robust channel distribution will be critical for vendors to capitalize on this national stimulus and gain market share.” 

Starting from January 2025, tablets are also included in the government subsidy programs. Chinese smartphone vendors have quickly adapted their channel strategies to leverage this stimulus and drive tablet shipments. Additionally, Apple’s launch of new iPad and Mac products in March 2025, offering more competitive pricing than previous generations, aligns well with these subsidies, further stimulating new and refresh demand. 

Canalys forecasts that Mainland China’s PC market will return to growth in 2025, driven by government subsidies and the ongoing replacement with domestic alternatives in government and large enterprises. The overall PC market is projected to grow 3% year on year, reaching 41 million units. The consumer sector is expected to grow 13% year on year in the first half of 2025, rebounding from a lower base in 2024. Meanwhile, the commercial sector is set to grow 7% year on year, though the full recovery among SMBs may take longer. 

The tablet market is expected to face a modest growth of 1% year on year, reaching 31.9 million units shipped in 2025. The consumer segment for tablets is forecast to grow 3% year on year, boosted by government subsidies. 

According to Canalys data, AI-capable PCs grew steadily throughout 2024, reaching 5.8 million units and accounting for 15% of total Mainland China PC shipments last year. This trend is expected to ramp up, with AI-capable PCs projected to make up 34% of PC shipments in Greater China by 2025. 

Mainland China is at the forefront of AI innovation, with DeepSeek emerging as a significant player in the space. The open-source, cost-effective AI model has not only driven usage by individuals but it has also rapidly penetrated both private and public sector commercial environments. Vendors like Lenovo and HONOR are quickly integrating DeekSeek into their in-house AI assistant offerings. 

“For PC players in Mainland China, the two AI pathways previously outlined by Canalys are materializing faster than in other markets,” said Xu. “As AI models become more efficient and the surrounding ecosystem—including AI assistants and agents—matures, vendors with a head start in developing AI portals and platforms will have a competitive edge in capturing market share. As a unique AI ecosystem rapidly develops in Mainland China, vendors must be ready to adapt and seize emerging opportunities by leveraging deep partnerships with domestic innovators.” 

Further reading:  

Canalys special report: Now and Next for AI-capable PCs    

For more information, please contact:

Emma Xu: emma_xu@canalys.com 

About PC Analysis 

Canalys’ PC Analysis service provides quarterly updated shipment data to help with accurate market sizing, competitive analysis and identifying growth opportunities in the market. Canalys PC shipment data is granular, guided by a strict methodology and broken down by market, vendor and channel, as well as additional splits, such as GPU, CPU, storage and memory. In addition, Canalys also publishes quarterly forecasts to help better understand the future trajectory and changing landscape of the PC industry.

About Canalys

Canalys, now part of Omdia, is a leading global technology market analyst firm with a distinct channel focus. We strive to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We’ve delivered market analysis and custom solutions to technology vendors worldwide for over 25 years. Our research covers emerging, enterprise, mobile and smart technologies. Understanding channels is at the heart of everything we do. Our insightful reports, data and forecasts inform our clients’ strategies, while the Canalys Forums and Candefero online community give the channel feedback opportunities. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology and our high level of customer service.

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