India’s smartphone market enters 2025 with weak consumer sentiment, Q1 shipment fell 8% 

India’s smartphone market entered 2025 on a cautious note. According to Canalys (now part of Omdia), smartphone shipments in India fell 8% year on year in Q1 2025, totaling 32.4 million units, mainly due to persistent demand weakness and elevated channel inventory from late 2024. This inventory overhang disrupted product launch cycles and forced recalibration of channel strategies. vivo retained the top spot with 7.0 million shipment units and a 22% market share, further widening its lead. Samsung shipped 5.1 million units, while Xiaomi followed with 4.0 million units, securing third place with a 12% market share. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) and realme shipped 3.9 million and 3.5 million units, respectively. 

“With consumer demand still fragile, 2025 is shaping up to be another channel-driven year,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Senior Analyst at Canalys (now part of Omdia). “In the absence of strong organic pull, vendors are relying heavily on retail and distribution networks to stimulate purchases. Channel schemes, offline activations and tighter sell-out coordination will again define share gains.” 

“In Q1 2025, vivo extended its lead with a balanced portfolio and sharp channel execution,” added Chaurasia. “Its V50 series capitalized on the ZEISS partnership, wedding-season campaigns and influencer-led events to boost visibility, while the T- and Y-series ensured strong online-offline synergy. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) leveraged its retail strengths, emphasizing rugged design, water resistance and long battery life, helping it post steady growth. Meanwhile, realme regained momentum following an inventory correction, with nearly 20% of shipments driven by the new 14X 5G and offline channels now contributing 58% of its volume. Xiaomi’s early Note 14 series launch saw a lukewarm response due to elevated inventory and cautious channel sentiment, though the Redmi 14C 5G helped maintain momentum in the affordable segment.” 

“As broader demand softens, brands like Apple and Samsung are anchoring their strategies around upgrade intent and higher ASP plays,” said Chaurasia. “Apple achieved its best-ever Q1 in India, driven by strong iPhone 16 series momentum and compelling offers across ecommerce and large format retailers (LFRs) during Republic Day promotions. The introduction of the iPhone 16e allowed Apple to deepen its reach into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. Despite starting the quarter with elevated inventory and a 23% year-on-year drop in total shipments, Samsung witnessed 5% annual growth in its S25 series versus S24 in Q1 2024, driven by premium momentum and conversational AI features. For both brands, ecosystem stickiness and premium-led channel execution will be key strategic levers in the coming quarters.” 

“The evolving US tariff landscape strengthens India's position in the global smartphone value chain, but demand volatility will test the market in the coming quarters,” stated Chaurasia. “The tariff changes open the door for increased local manufacturing, with smartphone exports expected to benefit. However, demand-side risks persist, particularly in export-reliant sectors facing softer global demand due to higher US prices. Smartphone demand was already tapering, with the pandemic-led replacement cycle winding down by mid-2025. Consumer sentiment remains fragile, especially in rural areas, where spending hinges on monsoon-linked income. In urban centers, upgrade cycles are slowing, and only ecosystem plays and AI-led innovation will stimulate demand. With limited organic growth drivers and reliance on channel dynamics, the market is expected to grow modestly in 2025. Still, rising ASPs and financing-backed premiumization present a silver lining, with the sweet spot shifting toward the ₹20,000 to ₹30,000 (approximately US$250 to US$350) price band.” 

For more information, please contact:

Sanyam Chaurasia: sanyam_chaurasia@canalys.com 

About Smartphone Analysis

Canalys’ worldwide Smartphone Analysis service provides a comprehensive country-level view of shipment estimates far in advance of our competitors. We provide quarterly market share data, timely historical data tracking, and detailed analysis of storage, processors, memory, cameras and many other specs. We combine detailed worldwide statistics for all categories with Canalys’ unique data on shipments via tier-one and tier-two channels. The service also provides a unique view of end-user types. At the same time, we deliver regular analysis to give insights into the data, including the assumptions behind our forecast outlooks. 

About Canalys

Canalys, now part of Omdia, is a leading global technology market analyst firm with a distinct channel focus. We strive to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We’ve delivered market analysis and custom solutions to technology vendors worldwide for over 25 years. Our research covers emerging, enterprise, mobile and smart technologies. Understanding channels is at the heart of everything we do. Our insightful reports, data and forecasts inform our clients’ strategies, while the Canalys Forums and Candefero online community give the channel feedback opportunities. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology and our high level of customer service.

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